Bill Gross, PIMCO bond king, wrote the following in his recent August Investment Oulook - Cult Figures.
1. From 1912 to 2012, stocks had a real return of 6.6 percent per year and this is fading. This 6.6% return will be hard to replicate in the future because two drivers that contributed to corporate profits are already at historical lows (i) labor costs (ii) corporate taxes. Bond returns are fading as well. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index currently yields only 1.8%.
2. Today, a diversified portfolio comprising stocks returning a nominal 4% and bonds returning a nominal 2% may produce an aggregate portfolio return of 3%. After inflation, it becomes zero. Bill Gross goes on to say that assumptions of 5-6% real returns used by portfolio and pension fund managers are unrealistic. Realizing this, policymakers' solution will be to inflate ourselves out of the predicament. But growth from inflation is not real growth as people will realize.
